Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 11, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
0 - 2
Arouca

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mujica (50'), Antony (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Santa Clara 1-3 Guimaraes
Sunday, March 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 0-0 Arouca
Friday, March 3 at 7pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
49.47% ( -0.14)	26.2% ( 0.02)	24.33% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 47.67% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.16% (

0.03)

55.84% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.04% (

0.02)

76.96% (

-0.02)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.37% (

-0.05)

22.63% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.75% (

-0.07)

56.25% (

0.07)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.61% (

0.12)

38.39% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.86% (

0.12)

75.14% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 49.46%

Arouca 24.33%

Draw 26.19%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 12.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.75% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.86% Total : 49.46%	1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.76% Total : 26.19%	0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.98% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.56% Total : 24.33%