Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 38.67%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 30.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.84%) and 1-2 (7.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.46%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 30.65% | 30.67% | 38.67% |
| Both teams to score 39.86% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.48% | 67.52% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.38% | 85.62% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.38% | 39.61% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.7% | 76.3% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.02% | 33.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.34% | 70.66% |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 12.46% 2-1 @ 6.23% 2-0 @ 5.77% 3-1 @ 1.92% 3-0 @ 1.78% 3-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.45% Total : 30.65% | 0-0 @ 13.46% 1-1 @ 13.45% 2-2 @ 3.36% Other @ 0.4% Total : 30.67% | 0-1 @ 14.53% 0-2 @ 7.84% 1-2 @ 7.26% 0-3 @ 2.82% 1-3 @ 2.61% 2-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.4% Total : 38.67% |