Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 59.2%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 16.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.27%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Belenenses |
| 59.2% | 24.02% | 16.78% |
| Both teams to score 43.29% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.94% | 56.06% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.86% | 77.14% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.25% | 18.75% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.86% | 50.14% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.28% | 46.72% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.73% | 82.27% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Belenenses |
| 1-0 @ 14.66% 2-0 @ 12.27% 2-1 @ 9.34% 3-0 @ 6.85% 3-1 @ 5.21% 4-0 @ 2.87% 4-1 @ 2.18% 3-2 @ 1.98% 5-0 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.88% Total : 59.2% | 1-1 @ 11.16% 0-0 @ 8.76% 2-2 @ 3.55% Other @ 0.55% Total : 24.02% | 0-1 @ 6.67% 1-2 @ 4.25% 0-2 @ 2.54% 1-3 @ 1.08% 2-3 @ 0.9% Other @ 1.35% Total : 16.78% |