Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
61.92% | 22.11% | 15.97% |
Both teams to score 47.02% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.87% | 50.13% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.9% | 72.1% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.32% | 15.67% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.28% | 44.72% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.76% | 44.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.68% | 80.32% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 12.84% 2-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 9.71% 3-0 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 6% 4-0 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 2.78% 3-2 @ 2.45% 5-0 @ 1.26% 4-2 @ 1.13% 5-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.04% Total : 61.91% | 1-1 @ 10.48% 0-0 @ 6.93% 2-2 @ 3.96% Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.11% | 0-1 @ 5.66% 1-2 @ 4.27% 0-2 @ 2.31% 1-3 @ 1.16% 2-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.5% Total : 15.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 44 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |