Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33

May 15, 2021 at 6pm UK

Estádio da Luz

Benfica
4 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Seferovic (12', 49' pen.), Pizzi (29'), Verissimo (37')
Grimaldo (7'), Verissimo (38'), Otamendi (43'), Gabriel (57'), Tavares (87'), Nunez (90+2')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Goncalves (45+1', 77' pen.), Santos (62')
Reis (31'), Mendes (57'), Mario (65'), Goncalves (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
41.18%	25.94%	32.88%

Both teams to score 53.81%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.55%

50.45%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.62%

72.38%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.77%

24.24%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.42%

58.59%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.02%

28.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.12%

64.88%

Score Analysis

Benfica 41.18%

Sporting Lisbon 32.88%

Draw 25.94%

Benfica	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 9.96% 2-1 @ 8.74% 2-0 @ 7.06% 3-1 @ 4.13% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.46% 4-0 @ 1.18% 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.86% Total : 41.18%	1-1 @ 12.33% 0-0 @ 7.02% 2-2 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 8.7% 1-2 @ 7.64% 0-2 @ 5.39% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.23% 0-3 @ 2.22% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.57% Total : 32.88%