Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Arouca
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22
Feb 25, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Casa Pia

Arouca
2 - 0
Casa Pia

Mujica (81', 90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 2-0 Arouca
Sunday, February 19 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Casa Pia

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-0 Guimaraes
Sunday, February 19 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
AroucaDrawCasa Pia
40.13% (0.061999999999998 0.06)28.31% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)31.56% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
Both teams to score 46.22% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.11% (0.024999999999999 0.02)59.9% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.84% (0.018999999999998 0.02)80.16% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.81% (0.049999999999997 0.05)29.2% (-0.044999999999998 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.86% (0.058 0.06)65.14% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Casa Pia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.28% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)34.72% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.55% (-0.023 -0.02)71.45% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 40.13%
    Casa Pia 31.56%
    Draw 28.31%
AroucaDrawCasa Pia
1-0 @ 12.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.13% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.68% (0.014 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.34% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.15% (0.01 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.76% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.03% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 0.97% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 40.13%
1-1 @ 13.2%
0-0 @ 10.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.3% (0.0020000000000007 0)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 28.31%
0-1 @ 10.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.98% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.67% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.46% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 2% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.52%
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 31.56%

How you voted: Arouca vs Casa Pia

Arouca
66.7%
Draw
11.1%
Casa Pia
22.2%
9
Head to Head
Sep 4, 2022 3.30pm
Casa Pia
0-0
Arouca

Baro (65')