Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
32.02% ( -1.04) | 26.59% ( -0.29) | 41.39% ( 1.33) |
Both teams to score 51.46% ( 0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.66% ( 0.9) | 53.34% ( -0.9) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.12% ( 0.76) | 74.88% ( -0.76) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69% ( -0.24) | 31% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.69% ( -0.28) | 67.3% ( 0.28) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.58% ( 1.12) | 25.42% ( -1.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.76% ( 1.51) | 60.24% ( -1.51) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
1-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.4) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 3% Total : 32.02% | 1-1 @ 12.64% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.19) 0-2 @ 7.39% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.4% Total : 41.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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