Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.27%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
76.27% ( 1.77) | 14.61% ( -1.08) | 9.11% ( -0.69) |
Both teams to score 51.62% ( 1.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.97% ( 3.16) | 33.03% ( -3.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.24% ( 3.55) | 54.75% ( -3.55) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.85% ( 1.11) | 7.15% ( -1.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.98% ( 2.83) | 26.02% ( -2.83) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.59% ( 0.83) | 44.41% ( -0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.54% ( 0.66) | 80.46% ( -0.66) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 11.04% ( -0.57) 3-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.25) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( -0.94) 3-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.22) 4-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.38) 4-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.42) 5-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.38) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.16) 5-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.36) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.22) 6-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.24) 6-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.22) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.43% Total : 76.26% | 1-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.59) 2-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.56) Other @ 0.99% Total : 14.61% | 1-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.75% Total : 9.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |