Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.