Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Santa Clara |
36.37% ( 0.06) | 29.31% ( -0.03) | 34.31% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 43.97% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.1% ( 0.09) | 62.9% ( -0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.6% ( 0.07) | 82.4% ( -0.07) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67% ( 0.09) | 33% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.41% ( 0.1) | 69.59% ( -0.1) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.63% ( 0.03) | 34.37% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.92% ( 0.04) | 71.08% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 12.57% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 36.37% | 1-1 @ 13.43% 0-0 @ 11.34% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.31% | 0-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.55% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 34.31% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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