Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 24.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
51.23% | 24.22% | 24.56% |
Both teams to score 53.84% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.17% | 47.83% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.98% | 70.02% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.33% | 18.67% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.99% | 50.01% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.21% | 33.79% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.54% | 70.46% |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 10.58% 2-1 @ 9.64% 2-0 @ 8.88% 3-1 @ 5.39% 3-0 @ 4.97% 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-0 @ 2.09% 4-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.26% Total : 51.22% | 1-1 @ 11.48% 0-0 @ 6.31% 2-2 @ 5.23% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.21% | 0-1 @ 6.85% 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-2 @ 3.71% 1-3 @ 2.25% 2-3 @ 1.89% 0-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |