Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 58.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 18.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Belenenses | Draw | Arouca |
| 18.25% | 23.22% | 58.53% |
| Both teams to score 48.13% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.99% | 51.01% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.12% | 72.88% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.09% | 41.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.64% | 78.36% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.86% | 17.14% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.62% | 47.38% |
| Score Analysis |
| Belenenses | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 6.25% 2-1 @ 4.79% 2-0 @ 2.72% 3-1 @ 1.39% 3-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.88% Total : 18.25% | 1-1 @ 11.01% 0-0 @ 7.18% 2-2 @ 4.23% Other @ 0.79% Total : 23.21% | 0-1 @ 12.67% 0-2 @ 11.17% 1-2 @ 9.72% 0-3 @ 6.57% 1-3 @ 5.71% 0-4 @ 2.9% 1-4 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.48% 2-4 @ 1.1% 0-5 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.67% Total : 58.53% |