Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 41.87%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
| 41.87% | 27.7% | 30.43% |
| Both teams to score 47.54% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.95% | 58.05% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.27% | 78.73% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.66% | 27.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.2% | 62.79% |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.42% | 34.57% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.7% | 71.29% |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% 2-1 @ 8.44% 2-0 @ 7.95% 3-1 @ 3.65% 3-0 @ 3.44% 3-2 @ 1.94% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-0 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.9% Total : 41.86% | 1-1 @ 13.01% 0-0 @ 9.45% 2-2 @ 4.48% Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 6.91% 0-2 @ 5.33% 1-3 @ 2.45% 0-3 @ 1.89% 2-3 @ 1.59% Other @ 2.22% Total : 30.42% |