Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 33.52% | 27.38% | 39.1% |
| Both teams to score 49.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.83% | 77.17% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.61% | 31.39% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.24% | 67.76% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% | 27.96% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.41% | 63.59% |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 10.16% 2-1 @ 7.51% 2-0 @ 5.89% 3-1 @ 2.9% 3-0 @ 2.28% 3-2 @ 1.85% Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.51% | 1-1 @ 12.95% 0-0 @ 8.77% 2-2 @ 4.79% Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.37% | 0-1 @ 11.18% 1-2 @ 8.26% 0-2 @ 7.13% 1-3 @ 3.51% 0-3 @ 3.03% 2-3 @ 2.03% 1-4 @ 1.12% 0-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.88% Total : 39.09% |