Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.85%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 27.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.82%) and 1-2 (7.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Belenenses | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 27.58% | 29.57% | 42.85% |
| Both teams to score 41.31% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.84% | 65.16% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16% | 84% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.23% | 40.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.65% | 77.35% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% | 30.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.57% | 66.43% |
| Score Analysis |
| Belenenses | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 11.06% 2-1 @ 5.94% 2-0 @ 4.97% 3-1 @ 1.78% 3-0 @ 1.49% 3-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.29% Total : 27.58% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 12.33% 2-2 @ 3.55% Other @ 0.45% Total : 29.56% | 0-1 @ 14.74% 0-2 @ 8.82% 1-2 @ 7.91% 0-3 @ 3.51% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 1.41% 0-4 @ 1.05% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.31% Total : 42.84% |