Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
| 38.38% | 28.17% | 33.44% |
| Both teams to score 47.06% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.94% | 59.06% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.48% | 79.52% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.19% | 29.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.11% | 65.88% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.04% | 32.96% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.46% | 69.54% |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.89% 2-1 @ 7.99% 2-0 @ 7.2% 3-1 @ 3.22% 3-0 @ 2.9% 3-2 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.38% | 1-1 @ 13.19% 0-0 @ 9.82% 2-2 @ 4.43% Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.17% | 0-1 @ 10.9% 1-2 @ 7.33% 0-2 @ 6.05% 1-3 @ 2.71% 0-3 @ 2.24% 2-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.44% |