Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.