Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Arouca |
| 30.05% | 27.24% | 42.71% |
| Both teams to score 48.73% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.53% | 56.46% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.53% | 77.47% |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% | 34.01% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.31% | 70.69% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.84% | 26.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.76% | 61.24% |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.6% 2-1 @ 6.94% 2-0 @ 5.17% 3-1 @ 2.49% 3-0 @ 1.86% 3-2 @ 1.67% Other @ 2.32% Total : 30.05% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.9% 2-2 @ 4.65% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 11.93% 1-2 @ 8.63% 0-2 @ 8% 1-3 @ 3.86% 0-3 @ 3.58% 2-3 @ 2.08% 1-4 @ 1.29% 0-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.15% Total : 42.71% |