Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.95%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.