Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.53%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
35.63% | 27.85% | 36.53% |
Both teams to score 48.27% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.33% | 57.67% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.57% | 78.43% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.19% | 30.81% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.92% | 67.08% |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.76% | 30.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.59% | 66.41% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 10.97% 2-1 @ 7.72% 2-0 @ 6.46% 3-1 @ 3.03% 3-0 @ 2.53% 3-2 @ 1.81% Other @ 3.1% Total : 35.63% | 1-1 @ 13.11% 0-0 @ 9.32% 2-2 @ 4.62% Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.84% | 0-1 @ 11.14% 1-2 @ 7.85% 0-2 @ 6.66% 1-3 @ 3.13% 0-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 1.84% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.32% Total : 36.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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