Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 30.19% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Belenenses |
| 40.81% | 29% | 30.19% |
| Both teams to score 43.89% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.44% | 62.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.85% | 82.14% |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.88% | 30.12% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.74% | 66.26% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.81% | 37.18% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.02% | 73.97% |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Belenenses |
| 1-0 @ 13.44% 2-0 @ 8.07% 2-1 @ 7.98% 3-0 @ 3.23% 3-1 @ 3.19% 3-2 @ 1.58% 4-0 @ 0.97% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.4% Total : 40.81% | 1-1 @ 13.29% 0-0 @ 11.19% 2-2 @ 3.95% Other @ 0.56% Total : 28.99% | 0-1 @ 11.07% 1-2 @ 6.58% 0-2 @ 5.48% 1-3 @ 2.17% 0-3 @ 1.81% 2-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.78% Total : 30.18% |