Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 30.19% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.