Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 8.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.88%) and 3-0 (10.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.