Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 47.06% | 23.78% | 29.16% |
| Both teams to score 59.3% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.54% | 42.46% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.13% | 64.87% |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.76% | 18.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.72% | 49.28% |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.53% | 27.47% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.04% | 62.96% |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.37% 1-0 @ 8.53% 2-0 @ 7.25% 3-1 @ 5.32% 3-0 @ 4.11% 3-2 @ 3.43% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.58% Total : 47.06% | 1-1 @ 11.01% 2-2 @ 6.06% 0-0 @ 5.01% 3-3 @ 1.48% Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.78% | 1-2 @ 7.12% 0-1 @ 6.47% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 3.07% 2-3 @ 2.61% 0-3 @ 1.8% 1-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.92% Total : 29.16% |