Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 55.86%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Benfica |
21.18% | 22.95% | 55.86% |
Both teams to score 53.68% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.99% | 46.01% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.68% | 68.31% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.13% | 35.86% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.35% | 72.64% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.7% | 16.3% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.13% | 45.86% |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 5.99% 2-1 @ 5.58% 2-0 @ 3.07% 3-1 @ 1.91% 3-2 @ 1.73% 3-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.86% Total : 21.18% | 1-1 @ 10.87% 0-0 @ 5.85% 2-2 @ 5.06% 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.95% | 0-1 @ 10.6% 1-2 @ 9.86% 0-2 @ 9.62% 1-3 @ 5.97% 0-3 @ 5.82% 2-3 @ 3.06% 1-4 @ 2.71% 0-4 @ 2.64% 2-4 @ 1.39% 1-5 @ 0.98% 0-5 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.26% Total : 55.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |