Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
Result | ||
Tondela | Draw | Maritimo |
41.17% | 28.85% | 29.98% |
Both teams to score 44.21% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.87% | 62.13% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.17% | 81.83% |
Tondela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.3% | 29.7% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.25% | 65.75% |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.88% | 37.12% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.1% | 73.9% |
Score Analysis |
Tondela | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 13.38% 2-0 @ 8.12% 2-1 @ 8.05% 3-0 @ 3.29% 3-1 @ 3.26% 3-2 @ 1.62% 4-0 @ 1% 4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.46% Total : 41.16% | 1-1 @ 13.26% 0-0 @ 11.02% 2-2 @ 3.99% Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.85% | 0-1 @ 10.92% 1-2 @ 6.57% 0-2 @ 5.41% 1-3 @ 2.17% 0-3 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 1.79% Total : 29.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 84 | 27 | 57 | 77 |
2 | Benfica | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 65 | 23 | 42 | 70 |
3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 59 |
4 | Braga | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 59 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 57 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 43 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 35 |
9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 32 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 31 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 30 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 29 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 29 |
14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 28 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 28 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 27 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 22 |
18 | Vizela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 21 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |