Arouca's slump in form has seen them drop into the relegation places and they will head into Friday's game seeking that morale-boosting win to spark a fine run of form. However, next up is the stern test of going up against a Benfica side who they have lost to in each of their last five encounters. Looking at the gulf in quality between the squads, we are tipping As Aguias to come away with all three points and extend their winning streak.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 56.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.49%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
