Porto

3 - 1

Benfica

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 24.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.