Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 33.88% | 27.5% | 38.62% |
| Both teams to score 49.13% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.49% | 56.51% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% | 77.51% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.64% | 31.36% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.28% | 67.72% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.57% | 28.43% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.82% | 64.18% |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 10.33% 2-1 @ 7.54% 2-0 @ 5.99% 3-1 @ 2.91% 3-0 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 1.83% Other @ 2.94% Total : 33.87% | 1-1 @ 13% 0-0 @ 8.91% 2-2 @ 4.74% Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.5% | 0-1 @ 11.21% 1-2 @ 8.18% 0-2 @ 7.05% 1-3 @ 3.43% 0-3 @ 2.96% 2-3 @ 1.99% 1-4 @ 1.08% 0-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.8% Total : 38.62% |