Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dnipro-1 win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dnipro-1 win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Vorskla Poltava win was 1-0 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dnipro-1 would win this match.