Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 69.25%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 10.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.76%) and 3-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Shakhtar Donetsk in this match.