Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.65%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.