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Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 23
Feb 25, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Montpellier

Marseille
4 - 1
Montpellier

Ndiaye (31'), Aubameyang (43', 62' pen.), Sacko (82' og.)
Aubameyang (32'), Harit (65')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Al Tamari (5')
Sylla (32'), Hefti (48'), Sagnan (75'), Kouyate (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Shakhtar
Thursday, February 22 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Montpellier 3-0 Metz
Sunday, February 18 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 3-1 Montpellier HSC

Gasset's men should reward their new manager with maximum points against an inconsistent Montpellier side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 19.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.31%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawMontpellier HSC
59.15% (0.509 0.51) 21.26% (-0.174 -0.17) 19.59% (-0.34 -0.34)
Both teams to score 56.81% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.36% (0.302 0.3)40.63% (-0.308 -0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.98% (0.311 0.31)63.01% (-0.316 -0.32)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.58% (0.25099999999999 0.25)13.42% (-0.256 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.63% (0.506 0.51)40.37% (-0.511 -0.51)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.61% (-0.167 -0.17)34.38% (0.162 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.91% (-0.177 -0.18)71.08% (0.17100000000001 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 59.15%
    Montpellier HSC 19.59%
    Draw 21.26%
MarseilleDrawMontpellier HSC
2-1 @ 9.94% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.31% (0.044 0.04)
1-0 @ 9.27% (-0.043999999999999 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.65% (0.064 0.06)
3-0 @ 6.23% (0.087000000000001 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.55% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.34% (0.063 0.06)
4-0 @ 3.13% (0.073 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.78% (0.026 0.03)
5-1 @ 1.34% (0.038 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.26% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 59.15%
1-1 @ 9.89% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.61% (-0.065 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.26% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 21.26%
1-2 @ 5.28% (-0.072 -0.07)
0-1 @ 4.93% (-0.092000000000001 -0.09)
0-2 @ 2.63% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.89% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.88% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-3 @ 0.94% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 19.59%

How you voted: Marseille vs Montpellier

Marseille
92.9%
Draw
4.8%
Montpellier HSC
2.4%
42
Head to Head
Dec 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 17
Montpellier
1-1
Marseille
Fayad (14')
Jullien (44'), Savanier (90+3')
Veretout (52')
Gigot (55')
Mar 31, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 29
Marseille
1-1
Montpellier
Guendouzi (44' pen.)
Nordin (12')
Jan 2, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 17
Montpellier
1-2
Marseille
Savanier (90+1' pen.)
Tavares (47'), Esteve (61' og.)
Apr 10, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 31
Marseille
2-0
Montpellier
Dieng (9'), Under (19' pen.)

Ferri (18'), Leroy (66')
Omlin (90')
Jan 29, 2022 8pm
Round of 16
Marseille
1-1
Montpellier
Marseille win 5-4 on penalties
Milik (74')
Kamara (90+1')
Makouana (80')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG28189165244163
2Brest29158644271753
3MonacoMonaco28157653381552
4Lille281310542251749
5Nice2913883122947
6Lens30137103932746
7Rennes30119104436842
8Lyon29125123845-741
9Reims29117113639-340
10Marseille2810994133839
11Toulouse2999113437-336
12StrasbourgStrasbourg2999113340-736
13Montpellier HSCMontpellier29810113641-533
14NantesNantes3094172848-2031
15Le HavreLe Havre29610132737-1028
16Metz2975173049-1926
17Lorient2968153555-2026
18Clermont30410162149-2822


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