Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 23

Feb 25, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
4 - 1
Montpellier

Ndiaye (31'), Aubameyang (43', 62' pen.), Sacko (82' og.)
Aubameyang (32'), Harit (65')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Al Tamari (5')
Sylla (32'), Hefti (48'), Sagnan (75'), Kouyate (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Shakhtar
Thursday, February 22 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Montpellier 3-0 Metz
Sunday, February 18 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 19.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.31%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
59.15% ( 0.51)	21.26% ( -0.17)	19.59% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 56.81% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.36% (

0.3)

40.63% (

-0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.98% (

0.31)

63.01% (

-0.32)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.58% (

0.25)

13.42% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.63% (

0.51)

40.37% (

-0.51)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.61% (

-0.17)

34.38% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.91% (

-0.18)

71.08% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Marseille 59.15%

Montpellier HSC 19.59%

Draw 21.26%

Marseille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.36% Total : 59.15%	1-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.26%	1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.05% Total : 19.59%