Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 7, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
4 - 0
Villarreal

(Marseille win 5-3 on aggregate)

Veretout (23'), Mosquera (28' og.), Aubameyang (42' pen., 59')
Merlin (13')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Mandi (9'), Comesana (45+1'), Moreno (52'), Cuenca (72')
Moreno (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Clermont 1-5 Marseille
Saturday, March 2 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Villarreal

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Villarreal 5-1 Granada
Sunday, March 3 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Villarreal
48.72% ( 0.13)	23.07% ( -0.04)	28.21% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 61.12% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.24% (

0.1)

39.76% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.88% (

0.1)

62.11% (

-0.1)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.43% (

0.08)

16.57% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.64% (

0.15)

46.36% (

-0.15)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.26% (

-0.02)

26.74% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.99% (

-0.02)

62.01% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Marseille 48.72%

Villarreal 28.21%

Draw 23.07%

Marseille	Draw	Villarreal
2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 48.72%	1-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.07%	1-2 @ 6.93% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.21%