Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 50.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Hapoel Hadera had a probability of 21.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Hapoel Hadera win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Jerusalem would win this match.