Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Hapoel Petah Tikva had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Hapoel Petah Tikva win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Jerusalem would win this match.