Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 36.53%. A win for Beitar Jerusalem had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Beitar Jerusalem win was 0-1 (11.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Jerusalem would win this match.