Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 42.03%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv had a probability of 28.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.44%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.25%), while for a Hapoel Tel Aviv win it was 0-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hapoel Jerusalem would win this match.