Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33

May 2, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadium Municipal

Toulouse
0 - 1
Lens

FT(HT: 0-1)

Openda (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Nantes 1-5 Toulouse
Saturday, April 29 at 8pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 3-0 Monaco
Saturday, April 22 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 51.44%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Lens
26% ( 0.18)	22.56% ( 0.3)	51.44% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 60.98% (

-0.9)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.91% (

-1.27)

39.08% (

1.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.59% (

-1.34)

61.41% (

1.35)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.04% (

-0.53)

27.96% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.41% (

-0.69)

63.59% (

0.69)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.64% (

-0.61)

15.36% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.87% (

-1.16)

44.13% (

1.17)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 26%

Lens 51.44%

Draw 22.56%

Toulouse	Draw	Lens
2-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.65% Total : 26%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.56%	1-2 @ 9.6% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.31) 0-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 6% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 2.81% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.2% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.1) 1-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.87% Total : 51.44%