Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lyon in this match.