Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Angers had a probability of 19.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.03%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for an Angers win it was 1-0 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.