Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.03%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Troyes win it was 1-0 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Troyes | Draw | Lyon |
17.4% ( 0.03) | 20.81% ( 0.01) | 61.79% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 54.17% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.87% ( 0.01) | 42.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.47% ( 0.01) | 64.53% ( -0.01) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.35% ( 0.04) | 37.65% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.57% ( 0.04) | 74.43% ( -0.04) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.89% ( -0.01) | 13.11% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.25% ( -0.01) | 39.75% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Troyes | Draw | Lyon |
1-0 @ 4.82% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 17.4% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.81% | 0-2 @ 10.18% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-3 @ 6.9% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.74% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.51% ( -0) 1-4 @ 3.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 61.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 58 |
3 | Brest | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 |
4 | Lille | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 52 |
5 | Nice | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 48 |
6 | Lens | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 46 |
7 | Rennes | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Marseille | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
9 | Lyon | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 41 |
10 | Reims | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 37 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 37 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 32 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 29 |
16 | Metz | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 59 | -23 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 22 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |