Bundesliga
Gameweek
31
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Frbllog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Flogdor.png)
-
Lois Openda
23'
-
Mohamed Simakan
37'
-
Mohamed Simakan
46'
-
Benjamin Sesko
45'+2'
-
Christoph Baumgartner
80'
-
Jadon Sancho
20'
-
Jadon Sancho
37'
-
Nico Schlotterbeck
76'
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F11%2Fbvbpsv.JPG)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result
RB Leipzig
60.28%
▲
(+0.05)
Draw
20.02%
▲
(+0.01)
Borussia Dortmund
19.7%
▼
(-0.07)
Both Teams to Score:
61.55%
▼
(-0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5
65.46%
▼
(-0.13)
Under 2.5
34.53%
▲
(+0.13)
Over 3.5
43.53%
▼
(-0.15)
Under 3.5
56.46%
▲
(+0.15)
Over 4.5
25.04%
▼
(-0.13)
Under 4.5
74.95%
▲
(+0.12)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5
88.8%
▼
(-0.03)
Under 0.5
11.19%
▲
(+0.03)
Over 1.5
64.29%
▼
(-0.06)
Under 1.5
35.71%
▲
(+0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5
69.31%
▼
(-0.14)
Under 0.5
30.68%
▲
(+0.13)
Over 1.5
33.06%
▼
(-0.16)
Under 1.5
66.94%
▲
(+0.16)
Score analysis
RB Leipzig
60.28%
Draw
20.02%
Borussia Dortmund
19.7%
RB Leipzig
2-1
@
9.73%
▲
(+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.24% ▲ (+0.04)
1-0 @ 7.52% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 7.1% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 6.01% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 4.2% ▼ (-0.02)
4-1 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.29% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 2.3% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.7% ▼ (-0.01)
5-0 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.01)
5-2 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 60.28%
2-0 @ 8.24% ▲ (+0.04)
1-0 @ 7.52% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 7.1% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 6.01% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 4.2% ▼ (-0.02)
4-1 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.29% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 2.3% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.7% ▼ (-0.01)
5-0 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.01)
5-2 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 60.28%
Draw
1-1
@
8.89%
▲
(+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.75% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 3.44% ▲ (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.02%
2-2 @ 5.75% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 3.44% ▲ (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.02%
Borussia Dortmund
1-2
@
5.25%
▼
(-0.01)
0-1 @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 2.4% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.26% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 19.7%
0-1 @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 2.4% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.26% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 19.7%
Head to Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek
14
-
Mats Hummels
15'
-
Niklas Sule
45'+6'
-
Salih Ozcan
60'
-
Niclas Fullkrug
90'+3'
-
Ramy Bensebaini
32'
(OG)
-
Mohamed Simakan
35'
-
Christoph Baumgartner
54'
-
Xavi Simons
61'
-
Lois Openda
66'
-
Yussuf Poulsen
90'+1'
DFB-Pokal
-
Timo Werner
22'
-
Willi Orban
90'+8'
Bundesliga
Gameweek
23
-
Marco Reus
21'
-
Emre Can
39'
-
Emil Forsberg
74'
Bundesliga
Gameweek
6
-
Willi Orban
6'
-
Dominik Szoboszlai
45'
-
Amadou Haidara
84'
Bundesliga
Gameweek
28
-
Thorgan Hazard
45'
-
Emre Can
80'
-
Donyell Malen
84'
-
Donyell Malen
88'
-
Konrad Laimer
21'
-
Konrad Laimer
30'
-
Kevin Kampl
54'
-
Christopher Nkunku
58'
-
Dani Olmo
86'
Bundesliga
Gameweek
11
-
Christopher Nkunku
29'
-
Tyler Adams
40'
-
Yussuf Poulsen
65'
-
Yussuf Poulsen
68'
-
Dominik Szoboszlai
88'
-
Jude Bellingham
31'
-
Marco Reus
31'
-
Axel Witsel
38'
-
Marco Reus
52'
-
Thomas Meunier
55'
-
Youssoufa Moukoko
89'