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Bundesliga | Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 at 4.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Leverkusen logo

Dortmund
1 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Fullkrug (81')
Maatsen (37'), Can (45+2'), Fullkrug (45+3'), Schlotterbeck (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Stanisic (90+7')
Tella (28'), Frimpong (88'), Xhaka (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen

While many observers favour this Leverkusen side to win at Dortmund, Die Werkself have lost seven of their last eight visits to Signal Iduna Park and have not beaten BVB in three consecutive league meetings. The Bundesliga champions should avoid defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, even if it may not be enough to nick maximum points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
27.71% (0.029 0.03) 21.99% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 50.3% (-0.062999999999995 -0.06)
Both teams to score 64.67% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.09% (-0.119 -0.12)34.9% (0.111 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.11% (-0.132 -0.13)56.88% (0.127 0.13)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.41% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)24.58% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.92% (-0.058 -0.06)59.07% (0.052 0.05)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.75% (-0.066999999999993 -0.07)14.24% (0.059000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58% (-0.121 -0.12)42% (0.113 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 27.71%
    Bayer Leverkusen 50.3%
    Draw 21.99%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 6.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 4.91% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 3.45% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.14% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 3.06% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.61% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 27.71%
1-1 @ 9.57% (0.023999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.55% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 3.5% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 21.99%
1-2 @ 9.33% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.024 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.32% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 4.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.11% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-4 @ 2.07% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.15% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 50.3%

How you voted: Dortmund vs B. Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund
28.4%
Draw
34.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
37.1%
116
Head to Head
Dec 3, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 13
B. Leverkusen
1-1
Dortmund
Okoh Boniface (79')
Frimpong (12'), Palacios (74'), Odilon (90+1')
Ryerson (5')
Hummels (77'), Wolf (90+1')
Jan 29, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 18
B. Leverkusen
0-2
Dortmund
Adeyemi (33'), Tapsoba (53' og.)
Aug 6, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 1
Dortmund
1-0
B. Leverkusen
Reus (10')
Hazard (43'), Schlotterbeck (72')

Tah (27'), Palacios (37'), Hincapie (56'), Bakker (90+5')
Hradecky (90+2')
Feb 6, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 21
Dortmund
2-5
B. Leverkusen
Frimpong (16' og.), Tigges (89')
Dahoud (26')
Akanji (11' og.), Wirtz (20'), Andrich (28'), Tah (53'), Diaby (87')
Bellarabi (46')
Sep 11, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
B. Leverkusen
3-4
Dortmund
Wirtz (9'), Schick (45+1'), Diaby (55')
Wirtz (60'), Frimpong (70'), Odilon (75'), Diaby (86')
Braut Haaland (37', 77'), Brandt (49'), Guerreiro (71')
Meunier (20'), Braut Haaland (60'), Wolf (90+2')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen33276087236487
2Bayern MunichBayern33233792415172
3Stuttgart33224774393570
4RB Leipzig33197775373864
5Borussia DortmundDortmund33179764432160
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt33111394948146
7Hoffenheim33127146264-243
8Freiburg33119134456-1242
9Heidenheim33912124654-839
10Augsburg33109144958-939
11Werder Bremen33109144453-939
12Wolfsburg33107164053-1337
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach33713135663-734
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum33712144170-2933
15Mainz 05Mainz33614133650-1432
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin3386193157-2630
17FC Koln33512162756-2927
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3338223082-5217


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