Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Apr 16, 2024 at 8pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
4 - 2
Atletico

(Borussia Dortmund win 5-4 on aggregate)

Brandt (34'), Maatsen (39'), Fullkrug (71'), Sabitzer (74')
Ryerson (43')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hummels (49' og.), Correa (64')
Azpilicueta (30'), Hermoso (45+1')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-2 Dortmund
Saturday, April 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Atletico 3-1 Girona
Saturday, April 13 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.56%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Atletico Madrid
44.56% ( 0.03)	22.99% ( -0.01)	32.45% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 64.06% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63% (

0.02)

36.99% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.82% (

0.02)

59.18% (

-0.03)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.92% (

0.02)

17.08% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.73% (

0.03)

47.26% (

-0.04)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.25% (

-0)

22.74%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.58%

56.42% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 44.56%

Atletico Madrid 32.45%

Draw 22.98%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.87% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.07% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.57% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.58% ( 0) Other @ 4.22% Total : 44.56%	1-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.88% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.98%	1-2 @ 7.53% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.38% 2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 3.21% Total : 32.45%