Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lens in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lens.