Sparks always tend to fly when the Choc des Olympiques takes place - whether they be from the stands or on the pitch - and given Lyon's recent upturn in results coupled with Marseille's string of failures at the Groupama Stadium, this is an extremely difficult derby to call.
Marseille have proven adept at keeping the back door shut on the road all season long, though, and while Lyon should feel confident of breaching the Olympiens' backline, a Gones side who often underperform at home might come up just short against the away-day specialists.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-0 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.