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Ligue 1

Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Troyes

Marseille
3 - 1
Troyes

Oliveira (2', 64'), Under (40')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Balde (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 0-0 Marseille
Sunday, April 9 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Troyes

All competitions
Last Game: Troyes 0-2 Clermont
Sunday, April 9 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 71.78%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 11.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 1-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.78%), while for a Troyes win it was 1-2 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawTroyes
71.78% (0.01400000000001 0.01)16.69% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)11.53% (-0.013 -0.01)
Both teams to score 53.06% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.16% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)35.84% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.08% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)57.92% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.23% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)8.77% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.88% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)30.12% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.16% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)41.83% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.71% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)78.29% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 71.77%
    Troyes 11.53%
    Draw 16.69%
MarseilleDrawTroyes
2-0 @ 10.86%
2-1 @ 9.47% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.93% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.82% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.68% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.36% (0.0040000000000004 0)
4-1 @ 4.67%
3-2 @ 3.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 2.61% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 2.28%
4-2 @ 2.04% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
6-0 @ 1.06% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-2 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
6-1 @ 0.92%
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 71.77%
1-1 @ 7.78%
2-2 @ 4.13% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 3.67% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 16.69%
1-2 @ 3.39% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-1 @ 3.2%
0-2 @ 1.39% (-0.002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.2% (-0.002 -0)
1-3 @ 0.99% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.37%
Total : 11.53%

How you voted: Marseille vs Troyes

Marseille
97.0%
Draw
3.0%
Troyes
0.0%
33
Head to Head
Jan 11, 2023 8pm
Troyes
0-2
Marseille

Kouame (47'), Ripart (73')
Mbemba (10'), Veretout (46')
Kabore (15'), Mbemba (54'), Malinovskyi (67')
Feb 27, 2022 4.05pm
Troyes
1-1
Marseille
Touzghar (90')
Balde (27'), Tardieu (36'), Rami (36'), Conte (49'), Biancone (90+5')
Payet (28' pen.)
Rongier (11'), Payet (55'), Lopez (85')
Nov 28, 2021 7.45pm
Marseille
1-0
Troyes
Lirola (74')
Gueye (16')

Salmier (10'), Tardieu (17'), Kone (43'), Rodrigues (59')
Apr 15, 2018 4pm
Troyes
2-3
Marseille
Grandsir (1'), Nivet (49')
Giraudon (27'), Zalazny (75')
N'Jie (11'), Mitroglou (75'), Thauvin (85')
Rami (45'), Payet (59'), Thauvin (66')
Dec 20, 2017 7.50pm
Marseille
3-1
Troyes
Payet (31'), Gustavo (66'), Germain (84')
Thauvin (54')
Pele (14')