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Ligue 1

AC Ajaccio
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25
Feb 26, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stade Francois Coty
Troyes

Ajaccio
2 - 1
Troyes

Belaili (62' pen.), El Idrissy (68')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Balde (23')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Ajaccio and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajaccio

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 3-0 Ajaccio
Sunday, February 19 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Troyes

All competitions
Last Game: Troyes 0-1 Montpellier
Sunday, February 19 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 52.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajaccio would win this match.

Result
AjaccioDrawTroyes
52.3% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)25.42% (0.024999999999999 0.02)22.28% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 47.67% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.29% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)54.71% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.97% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)76.03% (0.079000000000008 0.08)
Ajaccio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.06% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)20.94% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.32% (-0.073 -0.07)53.68% (0.073999999999998 0.07)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.3% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)39.7% (0.055 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.62% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)76.38% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Ajaccio 52.29%
    Troyes 22.28%
    Draw 25.41%
AjaccioDrawTroyes
1-0 @ 12.99% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.16% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.3% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 4.89% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.26% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.07% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.91% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 52.29%
1-1 @ 12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.31% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.68% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.55% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 3.55% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.37%
Total : 22.28%

How you voted: Ajaccio vs Troyes

Ajaccio
63.0%
Draw
25.9%
Troyes
11.1%
27
Head to Head
Oct 16, 2022 2pm
Troyes
1-1
Ajaccio
Porozo (76')
El Idrissy (88')
Kone (16')
Feb 27, 2021 2pm
Troyes
1-0
Ajaccio
Touzghar (90+3')

Coutadeur (66'), Kalulu (90')
Oct 31, 2020 6pm
Ajaccio
0-4
Troyes

Keita (89')
Saint-Louis (22'), Touzghar (49'), Baya (63'), Domingues (84')
Domingues (90+3')
May 8, 2020 7pm
Ajaccio
P-P
Troyes
Dec 21, 2019 3pm
Troyes
2-1
Ajaccio
Kouyate (45'), Tardieu (89' pen.)
Meissa Ba (25'), Souare (80')
Courtet (82')
Tramoni (31'), Cavalli (61'), Bayala (74'), Ismael (87'), Sollacaro (96')