Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 36.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.43%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.