Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 36.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
37.35% | 26.57% | 36.07% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.38% ( -0) | 52.62% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.73% ( -0) | 74.27% ( 0) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.7% ( -0) | 27.3% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.25% ( -0) | 62.74% ( 0) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.94% ( -0) | 28.05% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.29% ( -0) | 63.71% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.2% 2-0 @ 6.45% 3-1 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.15% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.09% Total : 37.35% | 1-1 @ 12.63% 0-0 @ 7.66% 2-2 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 9.74% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.03% 0-2 @ 6.19% 1-3 @ 3.4% 0-3 @ 2.62% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.8% Total : 36.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
3 | GironaGirona | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 67 | 40 | 27 | 68 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 32 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 59 | 38 | 21 | 61 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 48 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 42 |
10 | Getafe | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 40 |
11 | Osasuna | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Sevilla | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 37 |
13 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 37 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Celta Vigo | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 31 |
17 | Mallorca | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 32 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 25 |
19 | Granada | 32 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 18 |
20 | Almeria | 32 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 64 | -33 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |