Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 27.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 0-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.